Betfair In Running Prices

Betfair In Running Prices UK and Irish Horse Racing

There are numerous articles out there on this fascinating subject of Betfair in running and I just wanted to outline my strategy and opinion on this fascinating topic.

I will assume you understand what in running means i.e. that a horse race is underway. Most punters will take price or decimal odds before the race starts. I tend to take a price when the race is in-play, is it easy yes or no well the answer is yes and no there is no definite answer. 

So, what do I mean by this?

If you were to back horse at decimal odds 4.0 pre race off that represents the market opinion at 3 minutes before the off. You could ask for decimal odds 100 in running and you will most likely not get matched, but you will if the horse loses the race, I will guarantee that.

Now don’t be greedy here ask for a price of decimal odds 7.0 or less and you might just get matched and make a great deal more profit than at decimal odds 4.0
Now this is a hard concept for most punters to grasp, and I understand this but basic maths here,

7.0 – 4.0 = 3.0 extra profit and then scale over a week 21.0 is extra profit.

Now this is simplistic terms, and everything is not always linear.

So, were is the happy medium here?

Well, its guess work and a little bit of in running price or decimal odds history collecting and analysing.

Now let us look at a simple in running strategy here.

Now we could take decimal odds of 30.0 for every horse in a race with under 13 runners or less to reduce the liability. This is less than 100.0 and more achievable in a win market would you not agree. 

These are simple predicates or conditions and very easy to implement manually or via automation in other words via a bot. 

When you get a match and the horse wins work out your profit and loss over the previous N number of races and then stop for the day. This can be achieved by a simple predicate to check your balance on your exchange account that it has met a certain balance figure i.e.  exchange balance >= balance + £50 then no more bets.

Historical in-play data is key to this. You can look at H historical races  and your sampling should be adequate to obtain a historical view of in-play race maximum decimal odds and I have done this so many times in the past.

So, we could calibrate over a period of 6 months keeping historial decimal odds and then you have a in running strategy.

Use a graph and plot a line through this data to work out the optimum odds for an in-play strategy.

This is pure gold, and implementation is quite simple as with all strategies you need an entry and exit strategy that are predefined and adhered to.
Alter the strategy and spread your stake over a range of decimal odds that meets the historical sampling mentioned above. It’s like line fishing for bass the more hooks the more chance of a fish! In other words, you might get matched.

Pre race off implied probability will be made more effective with in-play decimal odds requests at higher decimal odds.

If you use the brilliant Bet Angel software we can sell our Bot or automation file that can be loaded into the Bet Angel software. 

Thanks